Posted by: splillo | March 12, 2012

The heat ... and thunderstorms?

The normal high temperature for March 12 in Concord, NH is 44F.

Already at 10am this morning, the temperature in Concord is up to 46 degrees. Clear skies will maximize solar heating today, just like yesterday, except that we're already starting a full 10 degrees warmer than yesterday! The high temperature reached 58 yesterday and today we will easily soar into the 60's. Further south, across Connecticut and portions of Massachusetts, highs could even hit 70!

The record high for today in Concord is 63F ... this should easily be broken. The record for Hartford, CT and Boston, MA are both 69F ... these will likely also be broken.

The calm sunny weather will take a hiatus tomorrow. A storm system currently spinning over Wisconsin will track eastward tonight. Southerly flow and warm advection will increase ahead of the storm, which will provide the forcing for some showers tonight into early Tuesday morning. We should dry out by the late morning, but the big question is how much clearing can occur. The southerly flow will certainly get us up to 60F, but if we can get some sun even for just a few hours, temperatures could soar far into the 60's and 70's. A cold front will approach in the afternoon (see the forecast map on the right for Tuesday evening). Combined with the warmth and the moisture from the morning rain, we could in fact have the recipe for a few thunderstorms! These conditions are much common to May than March.

Following the passage of the front, a "cooler" airmass will move into the region for the rest of the week. By "cooler" we're talking temperatures in the 50's instead of 60's ... still 10 degrees above normal!!

By the early next week, forecast models put is right back in a massive ridge of high pressure. In fact, this round of warmth could be even more significant than today! The image below is a model forecast projection for Tuesday 3/20.

For our purposes here, the red is much above normal temperatures. In addition, notice that black line below the red line that extends up through Pennsylvania into New York. Notice where that line is to the west and east ... Mexico and the Caribbean. This is a rough indication of the extent of the warmth we're talking about! Should this forecast verify, we would see widespread 70's and some areas even reaching 80 degrees!!!